Global winter wheat crops in good condition for now, but risks remain

Winter wheat crops in key producing countries are generally in good condition, although weather-related risks persist in some regions. Ukraine, Russia and the United States are currently reporting favorable crop conditions, supporting relatively positive outlooks for the MY 2026/27.

In Ukraine, winter wheat planted area increased by around 4% to 12.84 million acres, and overall crop conditions are described as good. Analysts note that a recent cold spell likely did not cause significant winterkill and may have improved snow cover, which could benefit crops at the start of spring vegetation.

According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, as of Feb. 5 about 97% of Russia’s winter wheat crop was rated in normal condition, compared to 87% at the same time last year. However, SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat production at 83.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, down from 90.9 million tonnes in 2025/26, as yields are expected to return to average levels.

In the United States, winter wheat conditions also remain relatively favorable. In Kansas, 61% of the crop is rated good to excellent, although in Montana only 19% falls into those categories. The main concern is moisture deficits, with about 43% of U.S. winter wheat areas experiencing some level of drought heading into spring.

Global wheat ending stocks outside China and India are projected at 135.4 million tonnes in 2025/26 — the highest level in eight years. At the same time, global demand remains strong, and U.S. export commitments have been running above last year’s pace.

Another supportive factor for the market is the slight reduction in the global production estimate in the February USDA WASDE report — the first time since August that the figure was not increased. This could make the market more sensitive to weather developments during the spring and summer growing season.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, wheat, USA, crop condition