Global wheat market in 2025/26 MY may face significant demand fluctuations

The global wheat market in 2025/26 MY may face an unusually wide range of import opportunities for key buyers. This was reported by Rory Deverell, author of Fryers Reports and owner of Black Silo Commodity Consulting, at the Trend&Hedge Club online meeting.

According to him, wheat imports to Turkey may increase in 2025/26 MY due to increased domestic demand, but the scale of this increase remains uncertain. According to the optimistic scenario, Turkey’s imports in 2025/26 MY could reach 10 million tons, while according to the pessimistic forecast – about 4 million tons.

“The growth in import demand could be significant, but this estimate is not guaranteed,” Deverell noted.

Regarding Egypt, he expressed doubts that the country will import 11-12 million tons of wheat this season. For 2025/26, he estimates Egypt’s imports to be in the range of 10-13 million tonnes, noting that economic, social and political challenges limit the potential growth in import demand.

The outlook for wheat imports to China remains highly uncertain. In 2025/26, they could vary widely from 3 to 14 million tonnes, Deverell said, adding that the country is difficult to forecast.

Combined wheat imports by Turkey, Egypt and China in 2025/26 could range from less than 17 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes, Deverell said.

“Such significant fluctuations in import demand are atypical for the market,” the expert noted.

In 2024/25, imports by the three countries are estimated to be in the range of 23-24 million tonnes.

Tags: prices, wheat