Global wheat demand rises every year — U.S. Wheat Associates

The current season has become one of the most successful in the history of global wheat production, U.S. Wheat Associates vice president for overseas operations Brian Liedl told growers at the Washington Association of Wheat Growers annual convention in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. According to him, the world has simultaneously received “bumper crops” across multiple key regions, which is putting downward pressure on prices. “As long as someone in the world has plenty of wheat, it’s hard to rally prices. A true global rally happens only when everyone runs short,” he explained.

According to USDA projections, in 2025 global production will exceed expected consumption for the first time since the 2019/20 marketing year. Yet the rapid growth in demand is essentially offsetting the effect of this surplus. “We’re struggling to keep pace with global wheat demand,” Liedl noted. Asia and Southeast Asia are developing especially fast: while in 1991/92 the region consumed 6 million tons of soft white wheat from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, by 2024 demand had risen to 18 million tons.

A key driver behind this growth is shifting dietary preferences. Even with slowing population growth, consumers are increasingly choosing wheat and bakery products over rice. From 2009 to 2020, per-capita wheat consumption in the region rose by 47%, while rice consumption fell by 10 kilograms per person. Liedl emphasized that the potential for expansion remains enormous: as Southeast Asian economies reach full industrialization, demand could grow by another 74% — up to 30 million tons annually.

This would significantly increase imports of soft white wheat from the United States — from today’s 2.6 million tons to a possible 4.5 million tons per year. “Eighty-six percent of our ending stocks would be needed to meet that additional demand,” Liedl stressed. While such growth may seem ambitious, he pointed out that a similar 70% rise in wheat consumption already took place in Asia between 2004 and 2024.

U.S. Wheat Associates sees strong growth potential in Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East — regions where populations continue to expand. Particular attention is on Indonesia, the world’s second-largest wheat market: the U.S. share there increased from 5% to 7% within a year, with each percentage point representing an additional 100,000 tons of wheat. Bangladesh also showed significant growth, jumping from zero to 288,000 tons thanks to newly signed cooperation agreements.

However, U.S. exporters face intense competition this season, as supplies from Europe, Australia, the Black Sea region and Argentina are also increasing. Even so, soft white wheat from the Pacific Northwest continues to deliver strong quality — with protein levels around 10%, seen as the ideal balance for this class. “Soft white wheat has very few competitors. It’s as close to a silver bullet as we have,” Liedl concluded, thanking the region’s farmers and researchers for consistently producing a top-tier crop.

Tags: supply and demand balance, wheat, USA