Global vegetable oil imports will increase by more than 3 mln tons in the 2025/26 season

According to a recent forecast from Oil World (Germany), the world will face record demand for vegetable oils in 2025/26. Global imports of eight main types of oils could increase by 3.1 million tons, reaching 94.5 million tons.

The main market driver is a sharp increase in global vegetable oil consumption by 6.1 million tons per year. This figure is more than double last season’s increase. Countries such as the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil, where domestic demand from the biodiesel industry is particularly strong, are playing a key role.

However, analysts note that satisfying this demand will be difficult. Limited supply is projected to pose a serious challenge to global trade. The situation is further exacerbated by a sharp decline in global soybean oil reserves. Experts cite US energy policy as a key factor.

“Thanks to the government’s biofuel development program and support for domestic raw materials, US soybean oil consumption could soar by 2 million tons next season,” the report notes. “This not only depletes reserves but will also force the US to significantly reduce imports, reducing their position as a major buyer.”

In light of these events, a significant redistribution of power among supplier countries is also looming. Combined vegetable oil exports from traditional giants—India, Argentina, Brazil, and the US—are projected to decline by 2.2 million tons.

This will increase the global market’s dependence on alternative sources, pushing exporters such as Russia, Ukraine, Malaysia, and Canada to the forefront, the agency notes.

A separate factor of instability is Indonesia’s biofuel policy. If the government increases the blending mandate to 50%, this will sharply reduce the volume of palm oil available for export, experts warn. As a result, the global market will face an even greater shortage, spurring demand for soybean oil as a primary substitute.

Experts also note that vegetable oil prices will remain under pressure in the 2025/26 season. Investors and market participants should closely monitor biofuel policies in the US and Indonesia, as well as oilseed yields in Russia and Ukraine, which could become new key players in the wake of this crisis.

Tags: Ukraine, sunflower oil, soybean oil, palm oil, edible oils