Global uncertainty to shape Australia’s 2025/26 crop decisions

As Australian growers prepare for the 2025/26 winter crop, global geopolitical volatility could play a role in planting decisions, according to ANZ’s latest Agri Commodity Report.

ANZ’s Agri InFocus report indicates that producers are expected to closely monitor global events for impacts on crop prices, demand, and input costs.

Michael Whitehead, ANZ Executive Director for Food, Beverage and Agribusiness Insights, said: “While the 2024/25 season delivered wheat and barley production in line with historical averages, mixed outcomes across states, due to widely varying rainfall, are likely to see soil moisture levels play a role in upcoming planting decisions.

“Looking ahead, global geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts could indirectly influence farmer decision-making for the 2025/26 season. Tariffs and trade tensions remain a key factor, with uncertainty around which grains and oilseeds could be most impacted bringing volatility to price markets.”

The potential introduction of protectionist policies by some governments could impact grain and oilseed trade flows, and the risk of ongoing geopolitical volatility may drive grain producers to favour wheat for its relative stability and wide global demand.

Additionally, an increase in market access for certain Australian crops due to current trade tensions could lead to a late surge in planting.

“It is foreseeable that a number of countries may look to increase their wheat purchases and build up their strategic reserves, in case trade volatility continues for some time.

“The ongoing war in the Black Sea region is likely to continue to affect global wheat and barley markets, potentially boosting demand for Australian exports, while the European Union’s evolving biofuel policies could influence Australian canola exports, particularly if biodiesel demand fluctuates.

“Meanwhile, India’s strong appetite for pulse imports remains a key opportunity for Australian growers. As India’s domestic pulse production faces seasonal challenges, demand for Australian lentils and chickpeas could stay high.

“Currency fluctuations will also impact Australian grain and oilseed competitiveness in global markets, with a relatively low Australian Dollar increasing the appeal of Australian grain exports.

“Input costs, including fertiliser, fuel, and chemical prices, will remain a significant factor in planting decisions. Farmers will need to weigh these costs against potential returns as global markets respond to shifting economic and political conditions,” Whitehead said.

Tags: barley, wheat, rapeseed, Australia