Global soybean trade is increasingly shifting towards South America

Despite record harvests, the global soybean market remains tight. Consumption is growing faster than production, leading to a reduction in stocks for the first time in several years. At the same time, the global trade shift toward South America is increasing, according to the German Union for the Promotion of Oilseeds and Grains (UFOP).

The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates global soybean production in 2025/26 at 428 million tonnes. Due to unfavorable weather conditions and harvest delays, the United States is expected to harvest approximately 116 million tonnes, down approximately 3% from last season.

Meanwhile, Brazil is on track to reach a record high and cementing its role as the world’s leading supplier. Production is expected to reach 177 million tonnes, covering approximately 47 million hectares of cultivated land, four times the size of Germany’s arable land.

Soybean production in Argentina is forecast to be slightly lower at 48.5 million tonnes, as many farms have switched to corn and sunflower. IGC estimates that global consumption will reach around 430 million tonnes, a new all-time high. This growth is driven by continued growth in demand for meat and, consequently, protein feed, particularly for rapidly growing food production in Asia.

Trade is particularly dynamic. IGC estimates soybean volumes at 187 million tonnes, approximately 3 million tonnes more than last year. Brazil is expected to account for the largest share, with exports of 113 million tonnes, strengthening its role as the world’s main supplier. China remains the most important buyer, importing 113 million tonnes, sourcing almost all of its production from South America. The US continues to lose ground: its exports fell by approximately 10% to 45 million tonnes, primarily due to the current US government trade policy and the subsequent decline in Chinese purchases.

Soybean ending stocks are estimated at 120 million tonnes, approximately 3.5 million tonnes lower than in the previous season. In South America, in particular, stocks are lower due to extensive exports.

Earlier, it was reported that the US had tentatively agreed to sell 12 million tonnes of soybeans to China and another 19 million tonnes to countries in Southeast Asia.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, USA, Argentina