Global prices for palm and soybean oil are expected to increase by USD 100–150 per ton at the start of 2026 due to reduced supplies, said Thomas Milke, leading industry analyst and editor-in-chief of the consulting portal OilWorld (Germany), on Friday. At the same time, the premium on sunflower oil is expected to disappear.
Speaking at the Globoil India conference, Milke noted that demand for palm and soybean oils will be supported by likely growth in biodiesel consumption in the U.S., Brazil, and Indonesia, while production growth remains limited. He estimates that growth in global palm oil production—the most widely consumed oil—will slow, with only an additional 1.14 mln tons expected in 2026 compared to the current year.
Milke added that prices for Malaysian RBD palm olein, currently around USD 1080/ton FOB, “could rise by more than USD 150/ton if Indonesian government measures affecting palm plantations have a negative impact.” Indonesia recently transferred 1.5 mln ha of palm oil plantations to the state-owned company Agrinas Palma Nusantara, making it the world’s largest by area, capable of producing 5.7 mln tons of crude palm oil annually and influencing the market.
He also noted that Argentine soybean oil, currently trading around USD 1050/ton FOB, is undervalued and may increase in price, mainly due to rising biodiesel demand. Meanwhile, sunflower oil—which currently trades at a significant premium over competing soybean oil—is expected to become cheaper. Milke predicts that improved supplies from the Black Sea region and Argentina by March will reduce prices. Currently, sunflower oil commands a USD 140/ton premium over soybean oil in India, the world’s largest vegetable oil importer.
According to Milke, imports of sunflower oil into India, China, and other key markets are decreasing, but this trend is expected to reverse once the premium disappears. Sunflower oil imports into India in the 2025/26 marketing year, starting November 1, are projected to rise by 1.5 mln tons compared to last year, reaching a record 18 mln tons.
