Global market is experiencing an acute shortage of beef

The international beef market is entering a new phase, with the United States once again playing a central role. With domestic production declining and a recovery projected only by 2027 or 2028, the United States is strengthening its position as a major global buyer, opening up new opportunities for exporters from Mercosur countries, as Diego Ponti, economist and analyst at AZ Group, explained in an interview with Grupo Agro del Sur.

The United States, the main importer supporting the market

Ponti noted that the United States maintains a structural deficit in beef, importing over 2 million tons compared to exports of approximately 1.2 million tons.

“The country consumes 13 million tons of slaughter weight per year, so even with the expansion of tariff quotas, the impact is minimal domestically, but quite noticeable for exporters in the region,” he noted.

Argentina and other Mercosur countries are seeking to expand their 20,000-ton quota through a preferential tariff, capitalizing on good bilateral relations and the US need for increased supplies.

However, Ponti emphasized that the market will not change significantly: “The United States is not flooded with imported meat. Argentina will not replace Brazil, and domestic prices will not fall as a result.”

The price differential remains a strong incentive: while in the US, the price of a steer reached $8 on the fourth scale, in Mercosur it ranges from $4.40 to $5 and above, a difference that allows for business even outside the quota.

Europe: Firmness, High Prices, and the Return of Beef Prestige

Following the Anuga trade fair in Germany, AZ Group analyst noted a clear recovery in demand in Europe: export prices increased by 50% compared to last year. Environmental policies and restrictions on domestic production have led to shortages, driving up the price of Hilton and the 481 quota.

“The Hilton quota is currently trading at around $19,000 per tonne, compared to around $12,000-$13,000 previously. Furthermore, beef has regained popularity in the European diet after the failure of synthetic meat, which failed to gain traction,” Ponti stated.

Israel and China: Pillars of Trade Integration

Another key finding of the analysis was the strategic role of Israel, which facilitates the integration of the meat processing industry by requiring the supply of forequarters, allowing other cuts to be distributed across different markets. “When Israel is present, meat processing plants are under pressure to replenish their stocks; it is a key customer for maintaining stable prices,” Ponti stated.

Meanwhile, in China, the analyst described a “price boom”: record imports in September exceeded 300,000 tons. Demand remains strong for both industrial beef, such as whole carcasses and trimmings, and premium cuts, driven by a growing middle class that is increasing consumption of red meat. However, he warned of the unpredictability of China’s trade policy, which could impose additional duties or quotas following international inspections in November.

Regional Forecast: Long Cycle and Resilient Prices

According to Ponti, the recovery of the U.S. cattle herd will be slow and gradual, ensuring sustainable import demand until at least 2027 or 2028. “For Southern Cone exporting countries, this means stability and opportunity. Beef from this region will remain competitive and essential,” he stated.

Overall, the analyst emphasized that the fundamentals of the international market remain strong, with producers reporting record prices in US dollars and an improved perception of beef as a global staple.

Tags: Beef cattle, USA, Argentina