Global livestock numbers decline across vast regions

A significant decline in domestic livestock numbers is being observed across large parts of the world. According to a study by Arizona State University, populations of cattle, sheep, goats, and buffalo have fallen by 12–37% in parts of Europe, North America, and Australia over recent decades.

For decades, terrestrial ecology was dominated by the view that too many animals were the main cause of soil degradation and biodiversity loss. However, new research suggests that in many regions the problem is no longer overgrazing, but the opposite — a shortage of grazing animals, a phenomenon scientists describe as livestock decline.

Researchers stress that herbivores play a key role in shaping landscapes, regulating vegetation, and influencing water cycles and carbon dynamics. As a result, a reduction in livestock does not automatically lead to ecosystem recovery. In some areas, the absence of grazing allows vegetation to grow unchecked, increasing the accumulation of dry biomass and raising the risk of large-scale wildfires.

An analysis of FAO data covering the period from 1999 to 2023 shows that regions accounting for about 42% of the world’s livestock experienced an overall decline in animal numbers. The sharpest contraction was recorded in Eastern Europe, while Central Africa, Central Asia, and South America saw livestock populations increase by nearly 40%.

The study indicates that economic and technological factors are the main drivers behind these contrasting trends. In wealthier regions, meat production has become more intensive and efficient, enabling up to 72% more output per animal. In less developed regions, livestock farming remains a key livelihood, and population growth is associated with larger herds rather than higher productivity.

Scientists emphasize that there are no universal solutions. Well-managed livestock reduction can ease pressure on fragile soils, enhance carbon sequestration, and improve resilience to climate extremes. Poorly managed, however, it may increase wildfire risks, reduce functional biodiversity, and accelerate the decline of rural areas.

Tags: livestock sector