Global grain production is set to reach record levels for the third consecutive year, but the market remains vulnerable to weather and logistical disruptions. This was stated by senior economist Alexander Karavaitsev of the International Grains Council during the 20th International Congress and Exhibition TUSAF in Antalya. According to him, global output will increase by about 130 million tonnes year-on-year — the largest annual rise in the past 12 years.
Speaking at the session “Finding a New Balance in Global Grain Markets,” the expert noted that total grain production will grow by around 6% compared to last season. He compared the increase to “adding another Russia” to global supply. The IGC estimates corn production at approximately 1.3 billion tonnes and wheat at about 850 million tonnes, both record levels.
After three years of deficit, the global market is returning to surplus, with production expected to exceed consumption for the first time in four years. This will allow global ending stocks to rise to their highest level in six years, approaching pre-pandemic levels. A significant share of the wheat production increase is coming from key exporters such as Argentina, Canada, and the European Union.
However, Karavaitsev warned that stock-to-use ratios remain relatively low — around 34% for wheat and 24% for corn. This means the market has only a limited buffer, equivalent to a few months of active consumption, and any weather shocks or supply disruptions could quickly affect prices.
The expert also highlighted factors limiting wheat demand, including lower rice prices following India’s easing of export restrictions, the recovery of white corn production in Sub-Saharan Africa, and strong competitiveness of corn in feed rations. Additional pressure comes from relatively cheap soybean meal, which intensifies competition among feed ingredients.
Despite the surplus outlook, wheat prices remain relatively firm. Karavaitsev attributed this to uncertainty surrounding the 2026/27 marketing year harvest, weather risks in the United States, the Black Sea region, and the European Union, as well as farmer selling behavior, particularly in Europe, where producers are reluctant to sell at current price levels.
As for corn, most of the production increase will come from the United States, with output projected to reach nearly 500 million tonnes. At the same time, the market is closely monitoring weather conditions in South America, U.S. export pace, and China’s policy, as the country could partially return to the import market after a recent decline. Overall, despite record harvests, the global grain balance remains fragile and highly sensitive to multiple risk factors.
