Global flour trade revised lower

In its latest quarterly update of wheat flour trade for the 2024-25 marketing year, the International Grains Council (IGC) made a significant upward revision of 1.6 million tonnes (wheat equivalent) from its previous forecast in April. However, at 16.1 million tonnes, it would still fall short of the estimated total for 2023-24, pegged at a six-year high of 16.8 million tonnes.

“While generally robust global demand for flour is anticipated in the current season, the annual retreat in traded volumes is largely linked to expected smaller imports by Near East Asia, notably by Iraq,” the IGC said. “Rising local availabilities could see flour purchases by that country, typically mainly originating from Turkey, drop to a decade-low of 1.5 million tonnes.”

Still, Iraq is set to remain the world’s second-largest importer of flour, which is expected to account for the bulk of the country’s 2024-25 all-wheat imports, the IGC said.

Conversely, Afghanistan, the world’s leading flour importer, is seen increasing imports by 1 million tonnes from the last quarterly projection and by 200,000 tonnes over 2023-24.

“The upward adjustment is tied to larger than previously forecast deliveries of flour from Uzbekistan, as well as an uprated projection for imports from Kazakhstan, where local supply prospects have improved markedly in recent months,” the IGC said.

Projected purchases of flour by sub-Saharan Africa countries continue to increase, most notably for Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan, where demand for flour deliveries from Turkey surged in 2023-24.

“Following the upward revision, aggregate imports by the sub-Saharan region are pegged at 3 million tonnes, broadly matching the previous year’s seven-year high,” the IGC said.

The IGC noted that the current import projection for sub-Saharan Africa assumes sustained export flows from Turkey. It cautioned that the export forecast is “clouded by the recent temporary ban of wheat imports” in Turkey.

“Although new restrictions were accompanied by the lifting of a ban on exports of flour produced from local supplies, which had been in place since September 2018, the shift in domestic supplies hinges on local prices relative to imported grain, as well as on export margins.”

Turkey is projected to remain the top flour exporter, although its year-on-year total is seen dropping from last year’s record of 6 million tonnes to 5.8 million.

More than half of the world’s exported flour is expected to come from two countries in 2024-25 – Turkey and Kazakhstan.

Because of ample local supplies and growing demand from key destinations, Kazakhstan is forecast to reach a seven-year high in 2024-25 at 2.9 million tonnes, up 400,000 tonnes from the April update.

Tags: Turkey, export, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Iraq