Global fertilizer market begins a period of reduced consumption

The global fertilizer market is entering a new phase of contraction as rising prices begin to weigh on demand.

According to RaboResearch analysts, some regions are still showing signs of resilience, but the broader trend points to weaker demand in 2025 and a more pronounced decline in 2026.

It is noted that the analysis of the indices confirms the start of a new cycle of decline. This phase closely resembles the previous contraction, indicating that the market is entering a prolonged period of reduced consumption.

On a regional scale, market dynamics remain volatile. In the US, geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs are expected to disrupt the upcoming season. European prices are likely to increase with the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). In Brazil, farmers face tight margins and limited access to credit, although fertilizer supplies could reach record levels in 2025. China is prioritizing domestic supplies, while India continues to play a central role in the global urea trade, influencing prices with each new tender.

“Urea consumption is forecast to decline in 2026 after a sharp price increase that has already caused demand to decline, especially in Brazil, where farmers are switching to ammonium sulfate. Phosphate prices remain high, leading to an expected 4% drop in global consumption in 2025, with a further decline in 2026. Chinese exports have declined, while supplies from Morocco and Saudi Arabia have increased. However, overall trade volumes remain low,” the experts said.

Demand for potash, which recovered in 2024 due to lower prices, is likely to slow again in 2025 due to higher prices, they forecast. Brazil’s plans for record imports could partially offset the decline in other regions, but if elevated prices persist, global demand is expected to fall in 2026.

Tags: prices, fertilizers