Global exports of vegetable oils to rise in 2025/26 on strong demand

According to the latest forecast from Oil World (Germany), global exports of 17 types of vegetable oils and fats are expected to increase in 2025/26. The increase will amount to 3.3 million tons. The main driver of this growth will be robust demand from major importing countries: the United States, India, the European Union, and China.

Soybean Oil:

Soybean oil is the only oil to show a decline in export shipments. The main reason is increased domestic consumption, including for biodiesel production, in producing countries, primarily Brazil and the United States. As a result, global soybean oil exports could decline by 1.2-1.3 million tons. This contrasts with the results of last season (2024/25), when a significant increase of 3.6 million tons was recorded.

Sunflower Oil:

The sunflower oil market is showing positive trends. After a relatively low export level of 14 million tonnes in 2024/25, shipments are forecast to increase by 1.6 million tonnes in the new season. However, this growth is constrained by problems in the Black Sea region, a key agricultural zone. According to the agency, processing volumes in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and Bulgaria will be limited due to smaller-than-expected sunflower harvests, which will impact export potential.

Palm Oil:

Although palm oil has lost its role as the main driver of global trade growth in recent years, its exports are forecast to increase by 1 million tonnes in 2025/26. Over the past two seasons, global shipments have remained stable at 48.5-48.6 million tonnes. This is significantly—almost 7 million tonnes—below the record high of 2016/17 (55.4 million tonnes). The main factors restraining exports are declining production and a sharp increase in domestic consumption in producing countries, primarily Indonesia.

Earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for the global oilseed crop and oil imports in the 2025/26 season. The estimate for global sunflower oil imports was raised to 12.17 million tonnes, and for rapeseed oil, to 7.13 million tonnes (7.08 million tonnes). At the same time, the forecast for global soybean oil imports was reduced from 12.03 million tonnes to 11.94 million tonnes, and for palm oil, from 43.8 million tonnes to 43.42 million tonnes.

Tags: sunflower oil, soybean oil, palm oil