U.S. corn exports are showing impressive momentum in the MY 2025/26. Weekly inspection data indicate shipments are running well ahead of both the previous week and the same period last year. Cumulative exports since the start of the season significantly exceed last year’s pace, confirming strong global demand for U.S. supplies.
Robust sales activity is reinforcing this positive outlook. New export commitments continue to outpace the level needed to meet the official annual projection. In its February WASDE report, the United States Department of Agriculture raised its export forecast by 100 million bushels to a record 3.30 billion bushels, reflecting the strong early-season performance.
However, risks could emerge in the second half of the marketing year. As new-crop supplies from South America and the Black Sea region enter the global market, competition is expected to intensify — especially if rival exporters offer lower prices or improve logistical performance.
Ukraine, which faced infrastructure disruptions, slow harvest progress and grain quality issues early in the season, has recently shown signs of recovery in export flows. If logistics remain stable and production expectations are met, Ukrainian corn could regain market share in the European Union — a key destination that has supported U.S. sales during the tight early-season period.
Argentina may also increase competitive pressure. In addition to the potential for a larger-than-expected crop, the government has reduced export duties on corn from 12% to 9.5%, and later to 8.5%, improving price competitiveness. Market access has also expanded after China officially opened its market to Argentine corn in 2023, potentially reshaping global trade flows.
Brazil, meanwhile, maintains significant production potential, particularly through its safrinha corn crop. Yet rising domestic demand — driven by rapid growth in corn-based ethanol production and strong feed demand from the livestock sector — is limiting exportable supplies. The government’s decision to raise the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline to 30% further supports domestic corn consumption.
Overall, while Ukraine, Argentina and Brazil each have the capacity to influence global trade flows, none currently appears strong enough on its own to derail the U.S. export outlook. Still, a combination of larger crops, aggressive pricing and favorable trade policies across multiple competitors could slow U.S. corn export momentum later in the season.
