Global cereal production to exceed 3-bln mark – FAO

FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2025 has been revised upward this month to 3 003 million tonnes, marking the first time the global output is estimated to surpass the 3-billion-tonne level. Upward revisions to wheat production estimates are primarily behind the improved outlook, driven especially by Argentina, where larger-than-expected plantings and likely record yields, supported by favourable weather, are expected to result in an all-time-high harvest. Revisions to wheat production in the European Union and the United States of America also contributed to this month’s more buoyant outlook. Likewise, global coarse grain production has been raised, although to a lesser extent, mostly reflecting higher barley output. As for rice, FAO has upgraded its production forecast for Indonesia since November, as official assessments in the country indicate that continued area expansions are likely to translate into a higher-than-previously-expected offseason harvest. Coupled with improved crop prospects for Bangladesh and Japan, this revision raises the global production forecast for 2025/26 by 2.4 million tonnes to 558.8 million tonnes (milled basis). At that level, world rice output would be 1.6 percent above the 2024/25 result and at an all-time high. Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia are forecast to spearhead this growth, more than compensating for contractions in Madagascar, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States of America.

Regarding 2026 crops, planting of the winter wheat crop is underway across the northern hemisphere. In the United States of America, winter wheat plantings are progressing at an average pace and were nearing completion by the end of November, with 45 percent of winter crop rated as good to excellent, 10 percentage points lower than last year amid continued dryness in parts. The winter wheat crop is being sown in the European Union amid generally favourable weather conditions, although localized rainfall deficits in Italy raised some early concerns for soft wheat establishment. Mostly beneficial weather conditions also prevailed in winter-wheat growing areas of the Russian Federation, with plantings completed by November. In Ukraine, improvements in soil moisture conditions partly allayed earlier concerns over drier conditions at the start of the planting period, and reports from the country point to a potentially larger wheat area in 2026, albeit remaining below the levels registered before the onset of the war in 2022. In Far East Asia, remunerative prices and government support policies are underpinning expectations of large wheat plantings in India, which could surpass last year’s record level, and an above-average area in Pakistan.

In southern hemisphere countries, the 2026 coarse grain crops are being planted. In South America, the preliminary production outlook for Argentina points to a rebound, based on an anticipated upturn in maize plantings, amid generally well-distributed early seasonal rains that have favoured crop establishment. In Brazil, strong domestic and export demand are expected to encourage an expansion in maize plantings in 2026, keeping production expectations above the five-year average level. In South Africa, maize plantings are estimated to increase marginally, mainly underpinned by larger planting intentions for yellow-maize varieties, supported by prospects of a favourable rainfall season.

World cereal utilization in 2025/26 continues to point to an increase of 59.2 million tonnes (2.1 percent) from 2024/25 with increases in the use of all major cereals, led by maize and rice. With prices stable and supplies ample, major producers of coarse grains are expected to use more maize (and, to a lesser extent, barley and sorghum) for animal feed while feed-quality wheat may represent an economically attractive alternative to other non-cereal feed ingredients. The forecast for global cereal utilization is up just slightly from the previous month with total utilization of coarse grains in 2025/26 lowered marginally, an upward revision to barley utilization for feed in Argentina being outweighed by slight downward adjustments to maize utilization for feed in Brazil and the European Union. Abundant supplies are forecast to facilitate a 2.4 percent annual expansion in global rice utilization in 2025/26 to a fresh peak of 552.8 million tonnes.

The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2026, already projected at a record level, is revised further upward this month and now stands at 925.5 million tonnes, an increase of 56.8 million tonnes, or 6.5 percent, from their opening levels. The most marked growth in wheat stocks is expected in China and India with reserves of the major exporting countries expected to rise more modestly. In the case of coarse grains, the forecast increase is concentrated in the major exporting countries, especially Brazil and the United States of America while in the European Union stocks are expected to recover to levels seen more recently. This month, wheat stocks are raised for Argentina and the United States of America after improved production prospects reported by both countries. Similarly, maize stocks are raised for Brazil after an upgrade to the segunda safra crop. Accordingly, the ratio of major cereal exporters’ stocks to disappearance is expected to rise to 22.3 percent by the end of seasons in 2026, the highest level since the early 1990s. Largely reflecting an upward revision to stock expectations for Indonesia, FAO’s forecast of rice stocks at the close of 2025/26 marketing seasons has been raised by 1.5 million tonnes since November to 216.8 million tonnes. At that level, world stockpiles would exceed their record opening level by 2.8 percent and would be sufficient to cover 4.6 months of projected world utilization.

World trade in cereals in 2025/26 is forecast at 500.6 million tonnes, up 15.9 million tonnes or 3.3 percent from last season. Trade in wheat is expected to rebound from its subdued level in 2024/25 with the resumption of imports by Pakistan and Türkiye along with other importing countries in Asia continuing to reflect current market conditions that are characterized by stable prices and comfortable exportable supplies. Trade in coarse grains is also expected to grow in 2025/26 with Brazil making inroads into the sorghum market as an exporter. Adjustments to the forecast this month are mostly minor, although exports of wheat from Argentina are revised upwards with the record harvest expected to prove attractive to neighbouring countries such as Ecuador. International trade in rice is forecast at 61.2 million tonnes in 2026 (January-December), little changed since November, but down 1.4 percent from current 2025 trade expectations, largely due to lower anticipated imports by Asian countries.

Tags: crop forecast, corn, grain, barley, wheat, FAO