Global beef production to decline for first time in six years in 2026 – Rabobank

According to Rabobank’s “Global Animal Protein Market Outlook 2026,” global beef production will enter a contraction phase in 2026, marking a significant turning point in the international animal protein market. The report also notes that this contraction will be the first overall decline in global animal protein production in six years.

The report attributes this adjustment to a combination of structural and cyclical factors: the ongoing recovery of cattle herds in North America and Brazil, structural changes in the Chinese market, and tightening global supply, which will support high prices in key international markets. Unlike previous cycles, Rabobank emphasizes that the decline is not due to a collapse in demand, but rather to supply constraints amid continued stable profitability for producers.

North America: Liquidation Completion and Reconstruction Commencement

In the United States and Canada, the livestock sector is beginning to show clear signs of stabilization after six consecutive years of declining herds between 2020 and 2025. The report emphasizes that improving profitability is slowing the sell-off of animals and facilitating the beginning of a herd recovery.

In the United States, cattle slaughter in 2025 is expected to decline by 19% compared to the previous year. Rabobank projects the slaughter rate to be 8.5% in 2026, significantly below the historical average, confirming expectations of more severe supply shortages in the near term. In Canada, herds are also stabilizing, while Mexico faces additional supply constraints due to disease-related import restrictions.

As a result, per capita beef availability in North America could fall 6% below its 2020 peak, continuing to put upward pressure on prices. In 2025, young cattle prices rose 26% in the US and 28% in Canada, with further increases projected in 2026.

While imports have partially helped to cover the supply shortfall, Rabobank warns that trade tensions could limit the growth of these flows. At the same time, US exports are expected to decline as strong domestic demand absorbs a larger share of available production.

Brazil and Argentina: Less Production, More Exports

Rabobank forecasts that beef production in Brazil will decline by 5-6% in 2026, reaching approximately 10.5 million tonnes. The main reason for this decline is producers’ decision to retain cattle to rebuild their herds, which will reduce current supply.

However, this production decline will not prevent exports from reaching a record 4.4 million tonnes. The report cites three key factors: strong international demand, the weakness of the Brazilian real, and reduced competition from other major exporters. China will remain the primary market for Brazilian beef, although the South American country is seeking to diversify its markets, focusing on Mexico and other emerging buyers.

Conversely, domestic consumption in Brazil could decline by as much as 9%, as high prices push consumers toward cheaper protein products such as chicken and pork.

The situation in Argentina is similar. Production is expected to remain stable at around 3.23 million tonnes, while exports could reach 880,000 tonnes, the second-highest level on record. Export growth is supported by price competitiveness and strong demand from China, the United States, and the European Union. However, domestic consumption is projected to decline by approximately 4%, reflecting a gradual shift toward poultry and pork consumption.

China: Structural Adjustment and Reducing External Dependence

According to a Rabobank report, China is experiencing a significant structural shift. Beef production increased in early 2025 as a result of herd reductions, but is expected to decline slightly in 2026 due to reduced inventories. This adjustment will lead to higher domestic prices amid tight supply.

Imports, which account for approximately 30% of total shipments to China, could decline by 2-3% due to global supply constraints and higher product prices. Despite this, retail demand remains strong, particularly through online channels, while the restaurant sector’s recovery will be more moderate.

Australia and New Zealand: Stability in the Pacific

In Australia, beef production is expected to remain near record levels in 2026, at approximately 2.85 million tonnes. This is supported by large cattle herds and strong export demand from the United States, Japan, South Korea, and China. Prices are expected to remain stable, with the forecast

Tags: prices, Beef cattle