Global beef market will grow despite uncertainty.

A recent report from RaboResearch examines whether global beef trade can maintain growth over the next five years, driven by increased demand from Asia and strategic export expansion by South American countries.

The bank explained that despite ongoing market volatility, Brazil and China have strengthened their positions as leaders in beef exports and imports. In this dynamic environment, the global beef sector will face both challenges and opportunities in the future.

Global beef trade volumes have increased over the past five years: exports have increased by 14% since 2019, reaching nearly 13 million tonnes in 2024.

“Brazil and China have consolidated their positions as dominant powers, with Brazil leading in exports and China leading in imports,” says Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst at RaboResearch. “Brazilian beef exports have risen sharply from 2.3 million tonnes in 2019 to a projected 3.6 million tonnes in 2024, largely driven by growing demand in the Chinese market.” This growth underscores the key role of Brazil, which accounts for approximately 50% of China’s beef imports.

The beef market is experiencing significant volatility due to disease outbreaks, geopolitical tensions, and changing economic conditions.

According to Gidley-Baird, unpredictability is expected to persist, impacting traditional trade flows and creating uncertainty.

With tariffs and market access restrictions remaining, the geopolitical environment remains a key driver of market fluctuations.

“Companies that can navigate this volatility and take advantage of favorable conditions will be well-positioned to succeed,” RaboResearch stated.

Increased consumption in Asia will be a key driver of global beef trade growth in the coming years. Vietnam, China, Malaysia, and the Philippines are showing significant growth in per capita consumption, as these countries rely on beef imports.

RaboResearch pointed to South American countries, particularly Brazil, as countries expected to meet this demand through increased productivity and improved management practices.

According to the bank, global beef production has grown by 5.5% over the past five years, but a temporary decline was expected, particularly in the United States, Brazil, and Europe.

“This decline will support cattle and beef prices, passing on profits to producers,” Gidley-Baird explained.

However, production levels are expected to recover due to improved genetics and increased carcass weights.

Given the adjustment in global supply, tensions between global and domestic consumers could intensify, as domestic consumption in countries like Brazil declines and export prices rise.

Tags: Beef cattle