Global Beef Market: Strong Demand in Fast-Growing Market

After reaching record volumes in 2024, beef exports began the year with a decline in shipments, contrary to the figures recorded by other exporters.

According to data confirmed by INDEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census), Argentina registered 50.1 thousand tons of beef (in commercial weight) in February, which, although exceeding the 46.7 thousand tons shipped in the previous month, was 27.5% lower than the same month in 2024.

Thus, in the first two months of the current year, shipments abroad reached 96,805 tons, 26.1% lower than in the same period in 2024. Although in value terms this decline was somewhat mitigated by the improvement in prices, the amount received from these shipments amounted to 474.5 million US dollars; this is 3.8% lower than the figure obtained in the same period a year ago.

However, what is remarkable about this behavior is not so much the magnitude of the decline, but its dissociation with respect to the figures recorded by the main exporters.

Indeed, in the first two months of 2025, Brazil, the world’s leading exporter, recorded overseas sales of 370.9 thousand tons, up 3% from the figure recorded in the period January-February 2024, and achieving an improvement in average values ​​of about 10.2% year-on-year.

Similarly, Australia, the second-largest exporter after Brazil, recorded beef shipments totaling 198.5 tons in the same period, up 17.2% from January and February 2024, well above the peaks seen during periods of sharp stock depletion such as 2014/15 and 2019/20.

Likewise, Uruguay and Paraguay recorded higher export volumes in the first two months of the year than in 2024. In the case of Uruguay, total shipments reached 65.8 thousand tons of commercial weight, 4.5% higher than the tonnage recorded in the same period in 2024, but an improvement of 20.6% compared to last year. For its part, Paraguay reported beef exports of 62.6 thousand tons in the same period, up 21.6% compared to the 51.5 thousand tons recorded in 2024, a record export for the country.

In short, these figures only reflect the strength of international demand. This year, the world balance is facing a reduction in meat supplies, mainly from Brazil, the United States and even China, which together have limited their production by more than 600,000 tons. The United States, which has always been considered one of the world’s main suppliers of beef due to the severe supply constraints it continues to face, will act as a net importer for the third year in a row, which will put significant upward pressure on world prices.

Using the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) Beef Price Index as a reference, it reached 131.9 basis points in February 2025, 10.7% higher than the 119.1 points recorded in February 2024 and only 3 points (2%) lower than the peak values ​​recorded in the same month in 2022.

Looking ahead, the international market offers extremely attractive conditions for beef.

In this sense, it is not only the United States that is driving price increases; Europe is currently offering very good prices, with benchmark prices for Hilton already approaching US$17,000 per tonne. The same can be said for Israel, where demand is very high both in terms of volume and price. Even China, which for much of last year exerted strong pressure to reduce import prices, has begun to ease the pressure, showing a slow but consistent improvement in prices. According to data provided by the customs office of the destination country, 470,000 tons of imports in the first two months of the year were recorded at an average value of about $ 5,200 per ton, which is already 9% better than the previous year. Meanwhile, the reference prices quoted by APEA (Argentine Producer-Exporter Association) for the main types and sets of cuts that China imports from our country are currently between $ 4,000 and $ 5,000 per ton; this is 15-20% more than what was paid a year ago.

In this context, the prospects for beef exports continue to show opportunities, despite the fluctuations in supply volumes. With global demand resilient and global prices rising, Argentina will be challenged to improve its competitiveness and take advantage of a market that continues to send positive signals. The development of key areas and the sector’s ability to respond to changes will be key to capitalizing on this favorable scenario in the coming months.

Tags: Beef cattle