Global beef market in 2026: supply shortages and a new reality of high prices

According to Rabobank’s “Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026,” the global beef market will face unprecedented challenges, leading to reduced production and rising prices for this type of animal protein. Alongside increasing production in the poultry and aquaculture sectors, beef, as a major source of animal protein, will experience turbulence. 2026 will be a turning point, when global land-based protein production will decline for the first time in six years, with beef bearing the brunt of the decline.

Key Factors in the Production Decline

Experts identify three main factors contributing to the decline in beef production:

1. North America: The US and Canada continue to slowly rebuild their cattle herds after years of culling. As a result, beef supply remains low, leading to rising prices. Meat production in the US peaked in 2022, but has since declined. Despite high prices, domestic consumption remains stable, forcing the US to increase imports while reducing exports. This creates opportunities for suppliers from Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand to fill vacant niches in the US market.

2. Brazil: This country is entering a phase of female retention to rebuild its herd, temporarily reducing slaughter volumes. Brazil, one of the largest beef producers, faces the need to balance domestic needs with exports. Amid global shortages, Brazil could become a strategic leader by directing its exports to high-demand countries such as China.

3. China: The reduction in domestic production is due to the end of the period of mass stock liquidation. China, which accounts for approximately 30% of global beef consumption through imports, will reduce purchases by 2-3%. This is not due to a decline in demand, but rather to limited global supply and high prices. Brazil remains a key partner, accounting for more than half of China’s beef imports. European Union: Regulatory Pressure and Stability at Low Levels

Beef production in the European Union is stabilizing at low levels. The main obstacles to growth include structural decline in livestock, stringent environmental standards, and regulatory pressure. In the short term, opportunities for production expansion are limited, leaving Europe dependent on imports. This opens new opportunities for Mercosur exporters, despite the moderate impact of trade agreements that may come into force in 2026.

Future Outlook

In 2026, we can expect a significant shift in the structure of the global beef market. On the one hand, high prices will create incentives for producers to optimize their processes and seek new markets. On the other hand, supply shortages could lead to higher prices for finished products, which will impact consumer preferences and overall consumption.

The global beef market in 2026 will become an arena for competition among producers, with countries with more efficient production systems and sustainable resources poised to take the lead. Brazil, as a strategic player, will likely take advantage of the situation to strengthen its position on the international stage, while other regions will be forced to adapt to new conditions to survive growing shortages and high prices.

Tags: Beef cattle