GC experts raised forecasts for global wheat and corn production in 2024/25 MY
In the report of the International Grains Council (IGC), released on July 18, the forecasts of global wheat and corn production for 2024/25 MY were raised.
Thus, compared to the June estimates, the forecast of grain production, including wheat and feed grains, was increased by 8 mln tonnes to a record 2.321 bln tonnes, which is 1% higher than the previous season. This was made possible by improved prospects for the wheat harvest in North America, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, as well as corn production in the United States.
Despite a decrease in the estimate of beginning stocks and a slight increase in projected demand, the ending stocks figure was increased by 4 million tons compared to June’s estimate. It is expected that the consumption of feed, food and industrial use will grow to record highs, so ending grain stocks in 2024/25 MY will decrease by 1% to a 10-year low of 586 million tons.
The volume of global grain trade will decrease by 7% to 418 mln tonnes compared to 2023/24 MY.
The soybean production will increase by 6% to the peak of 415 mln tonnes, and consumption – to the record 404 mln tonnes. The volume of global soybean trade will also grow by 3% compared to the previous season due to the increased demand from China, Europe and Africa.
According to the IGC forecast, rice production in 2024/25 MY will increase by 2% compared to 2023/24 MY to a record 528 mln tons.
In July, the IGC price index for grains and oilseeds (which includes prices for wheat, corn, barley, rice, and soybeans) decreased by 2% to 224 points compared to June, which is 16% lower than in July 2023.
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