FranceAgriMer lowers non-EU wheat export forecast

France’s state farm office, FranceAgriMer, on Wednesday revised down its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in the 2025/26 season, reducing it from 7.60 million tons to 7.50 million tons. Despite the cut, this volume is still more than double the shipments recorded in the 2024/25 season.

At the same time, FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for intra-EU shipments of French soft wheat in 2025/26 to 7.51 million tons, up from the previous 7.39 million tons and 6.8 million tons last season. The increase mainly reflects higher projected sales to Germany, Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands, according to FranceAgriMer grain analyst Habasse Diagouraga.

Diagouraga noted that details on changes to the non-EU export forecast are limited, but shipments to Morocco continue to support French wheat exports. However, growth in this market is expected to slow due to the arrival of the first Argentine wheat shipments, with a record crop forecast, adding extra competition in Morocco.

FranceAgriMer also raised its outlook for soft wheat ending stocks at the close of the 2025/26 season to 2.80 million tons from 2.74 million tons in the previous forecast, 12.7% above last season’s level. For barley, ending stocks are projected at 1.55 million tons, up 34.3% from the prior season.

For maize, ending stocks in 2025/26 are expected at 2.16 million tons, up from last month’s forecast of 1.86 million tons but 1.4% below the previous season. France continues to export large volumes of barley, with major shipments going to Saudi Arabia following significant exports to China last summer.

Tags: export, France, wheat, corn