FranceAgriMer Cuts Forecast for French Soft Wheat Exports Outside the EU Again

The French farm agency FranceAgriMer has lowered its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union for the fourth consecutive month in the 2025/26 marketing season. At the same time, the revised outlook has led to an increase in the projected end-of-season stocks to the highest level in 16 years.

France, the largest wheat producer in the EU, is facing strong competition on global markets. In particular, exports are under pressure from a record wheat harvest in Argentina as well as increased supplies from other major exporters.

In its latest supply and demand outlook, FranceAgriMer reduced its forecast for non-EU soft wheat exports this season to 7.10 million tonnes, down from 7.20 million tonnes projected in February. Despite the revision, the figure would still be nearly double last season’s export volume outside the EU and above the five-year average.

Shipments of French soft wheat within the EU in 2025/26 were slightly revised upward to 7.57 million tonnes, compared with 7.56 million tonnes previously forecast and 6.81 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season. The increase partly offsets weaker demand on external markets.

Due to softer export prospects and a higher estimate for the harvested crop, FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for end-of-season soft wheat stocks to 3.39 million tonnes, up from 3.05 million tonnes last month. This would be 37% higher than last season and close to the highest level since 2009/10, when stocks reached 3.43 million tonnes. The agency also slightly increased its projections for other grains, with barley stocks expected at 1.38 million tonnes and maize stocks at 2.33 million tonnes, supported by a crop forecast now seen 6.4% higher than last season.

Tags: export, France, wheat