France Faces Challenges in Selling Bumper Wheat Crop Amid Weak Export Demand

France, the European Union’s top wheat producer, is bracing for difficulties in selling an expected larger wheat crop this year due to shrinking export markets. Reduced demand from key buyers like Algeria and China, coupled with strong competition from cheaper Black Sea grain, is limiting France’s export options, potentially leading to surplus stocks or increased sales to livestock feed markets.

The French farm office FranceAgriMer projected on Wednesday that French soft wheat exports outside the EU for the 2025/26 season will reach a modest 7.5 million metric tons, contributing to a forecast 21-year high for end-of-season stocks. Last season, sales to Algeria and China, among France’s biggest wheat buyers, stalled due to a diplomatic fallout between Paris and Algiers and a general drop in Chinese imports amid ample domestic supply.

A smaller-than-usual 2024 French crop ensured steady demand from Morocco and West Africa, plus sporadic sales to Egypt and Thailand, absorbing last season’s surplus. However, this may not suffice for the current year. “The harsh reality is that France has a huge challenge to reach a 7.5 million ton export program,” said Rory Deverell, owner of Black Silo Commodity Consulting.

Competition from Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria, which are likely to dominate wheat exports in the coming months, adds pressure on France. Algeria’s recent purchase of 1 million tons highlights the preference for Black Sea suppliers. Additionally, a rally in the euro against the dollar this year, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies, creates further export headwinds. France hopes lower-priced feed markets can absorb some of the crop, especially if the wheat falls short of milling standards, but competition from maize and a bumper harvest in Spain complicates the outlook.

Tags: export, France, wheat