Forecasts of precipitation in Argentina stopped the growth of prices for soybeans, which will negatively affect prices in Ukraine

Dry weather in Argentina in the last two weeks and an unexpected decline in the forecast soybean crop in the United States significantly supported soybean prices on world markets, which increased export demand in Ukraine.

During the week, export demand prices for soybeans with GMOs with delivery to the ports of the black sea increased by 5-10 $/t to 375-380 $/t or 17800-18100 UAH/t, although processors with significant reserves, left prices at 16800-17500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

Rise in price of sunflower oil allowed the plants to raise prices for sunflower and return to its processing, abandoning the processing of soybeans amid problems with the implementation of soybean meal.

Export demand prices for non-GMO soybeans remain low at 410-415 $/t or 19000-19300 UAH/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports or to the western border. However, the demand from European buyers and the premium for the absence of GMOs are minimal. Processors’ prices rose to 18500-19000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant and stopped in anticipation of stabilization of export prices.

EU countries in MY 2024/25  (as of January 12) increased imports of soybeans compared to the previous season by 14% to 7.38 million tons, of which the United States was purchased 48.5% (54% last year), in Brazil – 33.5% (27%), in Ukraine – 11.5% or 845 thousand tons (8% or 527 thousand tons).

According to the USDA report (on Friday and Monday), the March soybean futures on the Chicago stock exchange rose 6%, but traders began to take profits and prices fell 1% to 383 $/t (+5.9% for the month).

Forecasts of rain in Argentina this week will reduce the speculative impact on the quotes, but next week the heat will reach 30-35 ° C, and no precipitation, which will worsen the condition of crops. At the same time in Brazil, good weather with heavy rains contributes to the formation of a good harvest of soybeans and corn.

Quotes support the data of the report of the Association of NOPA, according to which in December the volume of soybean processing in the United States increased compared to November by 7% to a record 5.62 million tons, which exceeds analysts’ forecasts and 5.8% higher than in December 2023. Soybean oil stocks reached a 5-month high of 563 thousand tons, but remain 9.1% lower than in December 2023.

Tags: Argentina, Ukraine, prices, soybean