Forecasts of frost in the US in the absence of a layer of snow led to a speculative increase in wheat prices

Forecasts of a new wave of frost in the US in the absence of a sufficient layer of snow led to a speculative increase in wheat prices by 2.7-3.8% on US exchanges on Friday.

Temperatures are expected to drop to -20…-22°C at night and -5…-10°C during the day in the US winter wheat growing regions next week, with light snowfalls only expected at the beginning of the week. With markets closed for Presidents’ Day on Monday, traders have stepped up wheat purchases amid concerns about crop damage in fields without snow cover.

On Friday, March wheat futures rose:

• by 3.8% to $220.5/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+11% per month, -1.6% per year),
• by 3.8% to $228.3/t – for durum winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+12.9%, -1.8%),
• by 2.7% to $232.8/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+8.3%, -10%).

Traders are also concerned about the lack of snow cover in the fields of Ukraine, where frosts of -10…-12°C at night and -3…-5°C during the day are expected next week, which will reduce moisture reserves in the soil and worsen the condition of winter crop crops.

March wheat futures on the Euronext Paris exchange rose only 0.8% to €232.75/t or $244.3/t (+0.6% month-on-month, -7% year-on-year), as weather conditions in Europe remain favorable for winter crops.

As of February 10, 73% of winter wheat crops in France were in good or excellent condition (68% last year).

Over the weekend, temperatures in the US and Ukraine will rise above 0°C and there will be minor precipitation, which will reduce speculative pressure on the market after assessing possible crop damage.

Tags: prices, wheat, USA