February Logistics Stress Test: Export Growth Meets Infrastructure Limits

UkrAgroConsult

February logistics unfolded as a real stress test for Ukraine’s export system, where accelerating shipment volumes collided with physical infrastructure limits. Agricultural exports in the first half of the month reached about 2.5 mln tonnes, with corn accounting for the bulk of growth. According to UkrAgroConsult, this surge exposed not market weakness, but bottlenecks inside the logistics chain.

The transport structure reveals a strong concentration on the ports of Greater Odesa, which handled close to 87% of total exports. Land routes continued to play a supporting role, mainly for higher-value products such as vegetable oils and oilseeds, where price levels allow exporters to absorb higher rail and trucking costs. This distribution of flows highlights how exporters prioritize cost efficiency under pressure.

Operational pressure intensified as weather disruptions and security risks periodically slowed port operations. By mid-February, around 11 thousand grain wagons were moving toward Odesa ports, equivalent to roughly 700 thousand tonnes. With daily unloading capacity hovering near 1.1 thousand wagons, UkrAgroConsult notes that short-term export dynamics are increasingly constrained by internal logistics performance rather than external demand.

Key themes of the article

• Export acceleration driven by corn shipments
• Dominance of Greater Odesa ports in logistics flows
• Supporting role of land routes for high-value products
• Growing congestion risks within internal logistics
• Infrastructure limits shaping short-term export potential

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Tags: Ukraine, logistics, Black Sea grain corridor