Favorable weather conditions in the US and a lack of precipitation in the Black Sea region remain the main factors affecting prices in the coming weeks

The weather in May and June usually leads to strong speculative price movements in agricultural products, as traders try to predict the future harvest of certain crops.

In the US and the EU, where the main world grain exchanges are located, the weather is quite favorable, so quotes continue to fall, not yet reacting to dry conditions in some regions of the Black Sea region, Australia, and central China.

This week, weather remained warm and humid in major grain and oilseed growing regions in the United States, which favored the development of spring crops but hindered the harvest of winter wheat.

Similar weather is forecast for next week, but fronts will bring rain and showers, favorable for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat crops.

Scattered rains have moved across the Canadian prairies this week, but they haven’t covered all of the canola and wheat crops, but the cool weather is helping the crops grow. Fronts are forecast to bring more widespread rain next week.

In Argentina, dry weather has accelerated corn harvest, with over 55% of the area already threshed. In Brazil, a new wave of rain in the south is holding back harvest but improving yield potential, as local analysts continue to raise corn harvest forecasts.

Hot and dry weather has set in in Europe, which is negatively affecting the sowing of late spring crops, especially corn in the southeast, although it is accelerating the start of winter harvest.

Temperatures are forecast to remain mostly above normal over the next week, with precipitation only expected to end by the end of the week and be very infrequent.

The Black Sea countries have enjoyed favorable weather this week with low temperatures and occasional rainfall, although some regions, including southern and eastern Ukraine, remain too dry. In Ukraine, winter wheat harvesting has begun, while corn crops are developing with a delay of 2-3 weeks due to a lack of heat and precipitation.

In Romania and Bulgaria, corn crops are also suffering from rainfall deficits, although low temperatures in the area may help reduce stress.

In Russia, the weather is conducive to the development of agricultural crops, and local analysts are increasing the forecast for wheat and sunflower production.

Many parts of Australia remain too dry to store moisture for winter wheat and canola crops, with only limited rain forecast for the next two weeks. Much more rain is needed, but the situation will become more critical in a month or two when the wheat enters the reproductive stage.

Central China received rainfall that will improve the condition of late spring crops, but will not affect wheat crops, while in other regions of the country the situation with moisture on crops is much better.

Forecasts promise more precipitation next week, which will certainly be beneficial for the development of corn and soybean crops.