FAS USDA forecasts record Indian rice harvest and exports
In the 2025/2026 season, which begins on October 1, India may harvest 150 million tonnes of rice, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) predicts. The current season’s harvest is estimated at a record 149.0 million tonnes.
From October 2024 to March 2025, India has already exported 12.7 million tonnes of rice, which is 5.6 million tonnes more than in the same period last season. If the export pace does not slow down until the end of the season, the volume of rice exports for the entire current season will amount to a record 24.5 million tonnes.
Assuming no significant changes in export policy and the current price parity of Indian rice compared to rice from other countries, India may export 25 million tonnes of rice in the 2025/2026 season, the FAS USDA predicts. Export growth will be impacted by a larger harvest and low domestic prices as the Indian government may come under pressure to sell off domestic rice stocks.
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