Falling palm oil quotes increase pressure on sunflower oil and seed prices in Ukraine

Seasonal increases in palm, rapeseed and sunflower oil supplies are putting pressure on vegetable oil prices, as importers reduce demand or switch to cheaper palm oil, while traders book profits after speculative gains.

The market is being pressured the most by the fall in palm oil quotes in Malaysia, caused by weak import demand from India and forecasts of a sharp increase in the harvest in Indonesia amid uncertainty about the implementation of the B50 biofuel program in 2026.

December palm oil quotes fell 4.2% to 4,143 ringgit/t or $988/t in the last 7 days (-7.6% in two weeks), adding pressure to neighboring markets.

December soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 4% on Friday, but have risen by 1.6% since Monday to $1,090/t (-1.4% for the week, -1.7% for the month), despite a sharp speculative increase in soybean quotes by 3.7% for the week in anticipation of China’s resumption of soybean purchases from the US.

Prices for Russian sunflower oil, amid increasing supply, fell by $20-30/t to $1,180-1,190/t FOB (for delivery in November) over the week, which led to a decrease in prices for sunflower oil delivered to India by $20-30/t to $1,320-1,330/t CIF Mumbai.

Demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine also decreased by $20-30/t to $1,230-1,240/t for delivery to ports in November-December, as after a sharp increase in purchase prices for sunflower, factories prepared sufficient volumes of raw materials and increased oil sales.

In Ukraine, sunseed prices fell by UAH 500-700/t to UAH 28,200-28,600/t or $588-595/t excluding VAT (for 50% oil content) in Ukraine since Monday, following a sharp drop in sunflower oil prices, and will continue to fall further under the pressure of reduced demand.

The large supply of sunflower seeds creates queues at factories, which allows processors with sufficient stocks to lower their purchase prices.

In the coming weeks, the supply of sunflower oil from the Black Sea region will continue to grow, so buyers will expect prices to stabilize to resume active purchases, and low palm oil prices will continue to reduce the premium for sunflower oil on the world market.

Tags: Ukraine, sunflower oil, prices, sunseed