Falling global soybean prices increase pressure on purchase prices in Ukraine

The introduction of reciprocal tariffs between the US and China has predictably led to a collapse in soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade and an increase in prices in China. At the same time, purchase prices in Ukraine are declining amid low export demand for soybeans and soybean meal.

In response to the US imposing a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, China has suspended agricultural imports for three US export companies and has also imposed a 10% tariff on soybean imports from the US. The US currently has 1.569 million tonnes of soybeans sold to China but not shipped.

Brazil accelerated soybean harvesting amid dry weather, while rains in Argentina reduced speculative pressure on quotes.

According to AgRural, as of February 27, 2025, soybeans in Brazil have been harvested on 50% of the area (+39% per week), which is 2% more than last year. 80% of the planned area has already been sown with second-crop corn, which, against the background of significant moisture reserves, allows us to hope for a good harvest.

In the state of Mato Grosso, the soybean harvest is being completed, and in other regions with early ripening dates there are no serious delays, while in the later states, especially Rio Grande do Sul, drought and heat are reducing yields.

March soybean futures in Chicago fell 4.7% to $361.6/tonne in a week (-7.8% in a month), and November new crop futures fell 4.7% to $368.7/tonne, although they have recently risen on forecasts of a reduction in sown areas in the US.

Amid China’s tariffs, a record soybean harvest in Brazil, and falling world prices, American farmers are likely to further reduce soybean acreage in favor of wheat and corn.

In Ukraine, export prices for GMO soybeans fell by another $5–8/t to $380–382/t or UAH 18,000–18,100/t with delivery to Black Sea ports during the week. Traders are completing the formation of export batches and are suspending purchases.

Low supply of non-GMO soybeans supports demand prices at $420/t or UAH 19,800–20,000/t. There is a possibility of increased demand from China amid the cancellation of supplies from the US and delayed harvest in Brazil.

Due to problems with the sale of soybean meal, processors have reduced purchase prices for GMO soybeans by 300–500 UAH/t to 17,200–17,600 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, while prices for non-GMO soybeans remain stable at 19,000–19,200 UAH/t amid limited supply.

The fall in oil and vegetable oil prices will increase pressure on oilseed markets in the near future, especially after the arrival of about 230 million tons of soybeans from South America on the market in March-April.

Tags: Ukraine, China, prices, soybean, USA