Extension of the trade regime with the EU: Ukraine sees two scenarios

The European Commission and the European Union do not have a clear vision of future trade relations with Ukraine within the framework of autonomous trade measures (ATMs). This was stated by Vitaliy Koval, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.

He noted that the lack of clarity in the forecasts for the trade regime with the EU from June 2025 encourages producers to move and look for other markets.

“The less our products will be “hovering” over European countries, the easier it will be to negotiate. For example, 36% of our agricultural exports in 2021 were supplied to the EU. Then a large-scale war broke out, and problems with the sea corridor arose. At some point, up to 73% of Ukrainian agricultural products began to enter the European market simply because there was nowhere else to go,” he recalled.

He added that in 2024 Ukraine reduced its agricultural exports to the EU to 52%.

“We are reducing the EU’s share in our export geography and looking for an alternative. At the same time, we remember that the EU market is premium in terms of prices, convenient in terms of logistics, and vital for our producers to keep them in good shape in terms of product quality,” Koval explained.

The Minister named two main scenarios.

“The first basic scenario that the Ministry of Agrarian Policy articulates in the negotiations is that the war is not over, so we ask to extend the ATZ regime, but with an increase in the list of sensitive products, which is now 7.

The second scenario being discussed on the sidelines is trade liberalization under Article 29, i.e., based on long-term planning to expand the number of products that can be imported into the EU. Yes, we are talking about quotas, but revised and significantly increased. For example, before the war, Ukraine could supply 20 thousand tons of sugar to the EU. However, for Ukraine, this is very little – just a few working days of our factories,” Vitaliy Koval added, noting that preparations are underway for the final stage of negotiations.

At the same time, he noted that it is necessary to look for new markets. Some areas have already seen export growth. For example, exports to Africa have already reached $2.6 billion. Deliveries to the Middle East and Southeast Asia are increasing, and cooperation with Malaysia, Indonesia, and Bangladesh is actively developing.

Tags: Ukraine, EU