Export prices for wheat in Ukraine are rising in line with world prices

Last week, world markets saw a speculative rise in wheat prices by 5.8-7.3%, driven by the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and dry weather in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. But at the end of the week, traders began to take profits and quotes declined, so the weekly growth was 1.4-3.6%.

Yesterday, December futures rose:

• by 0.5% to 217,7 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+1.4% for the week),
• by 0.9% to 221.6 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+3.3%),
• by 0.9% to 236.7 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+3.6%).

At the same time, December wheat futures on the Paris Euronext decreased by 0.25 €/t to 228.5 €/t or $251/t (+2.8%).

At the same time, the March futures are trading at 2.8-5.4% more expensive than December, so in the second half of the season we can expect further growth in wheat prices caused by unsatisfactory weather conditions for sowing in Ukraine and Russia.

Black Sea wheat prices were supported by Turkey’s decision to ease its ban on wheat imports. However, the new conditions are not very interesting for importers, as when purchasing 1 ton of wheat abroad, a processor must buy 5.7 tons of wheat from the Turkish Grain Council (TGC).

In eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, where winter wheat is mainly grown, there was no significant precipitation and it is not expected, but farmers continue sowing, hoping for rain. In Ukraine, as of October 1, 1.7 million hectares were planted with winter wheat (1.74 million hectares as of October 3, 2023), which is in line with last year’s pace.

In Russia, as of October 4, 83.8 mln tons of wheat were harvested from 93% of the area, while the USDA forecast was 83 mln tons.

In Ukraine, export purchase prices for the week increased by $5/t to 9600-9700 UAH/t or 208-212 USD/t for food and 9300-9400 UAH/t or 200-204 USD/t for feed wheat with delivery to the ports of the black sea.

In 2024/25 MY (as of October 7), Ukraine exported 6.5 mln tonnes of wheat (3.61 mln tonnes in the same period last year), which is 40% of the export volume agreed by the Memorandum.

In the United States, winter wheat planted 51% of the area (52% on average for 5 years), but dry and warm weather in the next 2 weeks will accelerate sowing.

Purchases of wheat on the world market are quite sluggish, so prices remain low. Thus, the Food Security Agency of Saudi Arabia (GFSA) purchased 307 thsd tonnes of wheat for delivery in December-January at the price of 265.78 $/t CFR, and the Algerian state grain agency OAIS announced the international tender for purchase of 50 thsd tonnes of soft milling wheat of arbitrary origin for delivery in October-November.

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Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat