Export prices for wheat in Ukraine are rising amid recovery in world prices

Wheat quotations on world markets continue to recover after the August fall to multi-year lows, and for the week rose by another 0.5-3.1%, ignoring forecasts of a decrease in the wheat harvest in Russia, as well as high rates of wheat exports from Russia and the United States.

According to the USDA, during the week ended September 5, wheat exports from the country amounted to 587 thousand tons, and in total in the season reached 6.35 million tons, which is 33.55% higher than last year.

IKAR lowered its forecast of wheat harvest in Russia in MY 2024/25 by 1.6 to 82.2 mln tonnes, and exports by 0.5 to 44 mln tonnes due to unfavorable weather in the East of the country, where spring wheat harvest is nearing completion. As of September 6, Russia harvested 71 million tons of wheat from 21.5 million hectares, or 72% of the area.

In August, Russia exported a record 5.6 million tons of wheat for this month, although export prices remained low at 215-220 $/t FOB. In general, in MY 2024/25, wheat exports reached 9.4 mln tonnes, which is almost equal to 9.6 mln tonnes shipped in the same period last year.

December futures declined yesterday:

• by 0.3% to 211.55 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.9% for the week),
• by 1.2% to 222.9 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+1.2%),
• by 0.3% to 218 €/t or 240.5 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+0.5%).

At the same time, futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago increased by 0.3% to 208.9 $/t (+3.1%).

In Ukraine, export purchase prices during the week increased by 3-5 $/t to 200-205 $/t or 9300-9400 UAH/t for food and 180 $/t or 8400-8500 UAH/t for feed wheat with delivery to the ports of the black sea.

Farmers are busy harvesting late crops, so reduced the number of offers of wheat, and traders are forced to raise prices to buy the necessary volumes for export.

In MY 2024/25 (as of September 5), Ukraine exported 3.78 mln tonnes of wheat, up 72% compared to the same period last year. Analysts believe that at this pace, most of the 16.2 mln tonnes of wheat stipulated in the Memorandum with the government will be exported by the end of 2024.

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Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat