Export prices for Ukrainian wheat are rising, although stock prices fell by 4% over the week

Difficulties with the harvesting of spring wheat in the East of Russia and sowing of winter wheat in Ukraine and South-West Russia support the demand for black sea wheat, the prices of which remain at 215-225 $/t FOB, while prices for French and German wheat exceed 240 $/t FOB.

In Ukraine during the week, export purchase prices for milling wheat increased by another 100-150 UAH/t to 9400-9500 UAH/t or 203-205 $/t, and for feed wheat – by 150-200 UAH/t to 8700-8900 UAH/t or 185-190 $/t with delivery to the ports of the black sea. They are supported by the growth of the dollar on the interbank market and the reduction of offers from producers amid active exports.

In MY 2024/25, as of September 20, Ukraine exported 5.26 mln tonnes of wheat (up 86% compared to 2.83 mln tonnes last year), including 1.48 mln tonnes of wheat in September 1-20 (up 85% compared to September 2023).

Dry weather in the East of Ukraine prevents sowing of winter wheat, so the Ministry of Agrarian Policy has lowered the forecast of sowing areas for the 2025 harvest from 4.69 to 4.48 million hectares.

Last week, wheat quotations on world exchanges fell by 4.2-6.4%, having lost the previous week’s growth, despite problems with the harvest in Russia and high exports from the United States.

In MY 2024/25, wheat exports from the U.S. reached 11.1 mln tonnes, up 28% from last year’s pace and a 4-year high, and 49% of the USDA forecast, with the 5-year average of 52%.

Almost 3-month rainfall in the East of Russia, delays the harvest of spring wheat and may reduce the volume of the crop.

Agency Coceral has lowered its forecast of wheat production in the EU in 2024 by 11.5 million tons to 114,92 million tons, in particular for France – to 26.2 million tons (35 million tons last year), Germany – to 18.4 (21.3) million tons, Spain – to 6.5 (3.2) million tons.

On Friday, the December wheat futures rose:

• by 0.5% to 208.9 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.7% for the week),
• by 0.1% to 216 €/t or 241 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-4.2%).

Remained unchanged at 207,23 $/t futures for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-6.4%) and at 223,4 $/t for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-4.4%).

Grain Agency of Tunisia ODC on September 19, purchased (as planned) 125 thousand tons of soft wheat at a price of 245,83-247,83 $/t C&F and 100 thousand tons of durum wheat at a price of 336,5-346,49 $/t C&F, which confirmed the presence of cheap wheat on the world market.

According to Friday’s report of the Commitment of traders, traders have reduced the net short position in wheat on the stock exchange in Chicago by 4364 to 25033 contracts, in Kansas city – by 1024 to 17486 contracts. This indicates that they do not expect a significant speculative rise in wheat prices in the near future.

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Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat