Export prices for soybeans in Ukraine are rising in line with world prices

In Ukraine, competition between exporters and processors of soybeans is increasing amid lower crop forecasts. During the week, quotes on world exchanges exceeded the export prices of demand for Ukrainian soybeans.

Export purchase prices for GMO soybeans in Ukraine for the week increased by another 5-10 $/t to 375-380 $/t or 17300-17500 UAH/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports, while processors with delivery to the plant offer 16000-17000 UAH/t.

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans also increased in ports by 5-10 $/t to 410-420 $/t or 19700-20000 UAH/t, but processors are willing to pay 19500-20000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant. On DAP – the border of Poland and Hungary, demand prices increased by 5-10 €/t to 400-410 €/t.

Ukraine in 2023/24 MG exported a record 3.26 million tons of soybeans, which is 5% higher than the previous record of 3.1 million tons in 2022/23 season. Soybean supplies to Egypt increased by 2.1 times, while exports to the EU decreased by 22% and to Turkey – by 26%.

November futures for soybeans in Chicago for the week rose by 4.5% to 375 $/t (-1.8% for the month) amid deteriorating crop conditions in the United States and forecasts of dry hot weather for the next 2 weeks, which will reduce the yield potential.

the Number of soybean crops in the United States in good or excellent condition for the week decreased by 2% to 65% (53% last year). According to estimates of the Agency StoneX, despite the decline in soybean yields in the U.S., the total harvest will increase due to the increase in acreage.

Soybean exports from the United States in July increased compared to June by 11.62% to 1,495 million tons, which is 17.04% higher than in July 2023 At the same time, the export of meal decreased compared to last year by 6.1% to 1,018 million tons.

According to the forecast of the Brazilian AgRural agency, in 2024/25 MY the soybean planting areas in the country will increase by 0.9% compared to the previous season to 114.66 mln acres or 46.4 mln hectares (USDA estimates the area at 116.9 mln acres or 47.3 mln hectares), and the total production will reach 168 mln tons.

In the central part of Brazil, the weather remains dry with temperatures of 35-38°C, which does not allow to start sowing soybeans, so farmers are waiting for the rainy season, which is expected to begin in September. The results of the sowing will determine whether the forecasts of a record soybean crop in the country, which are now putting pressure on world prices, will be justified.

Tags: prices, soybean, Ukraine