Export demand prices for wheat in Ukraine have increased amid the falling hryvnia exchange rate and limited supply

Amid uncertainty on world markets caused by the introduction of reciprocal duties, Ukraine is experiencing a slight increase in demand for wheat, which, against the backdrop of limited supply, is contributing to an increase in prices. The hryvnia exchange rate, after strengthening to 41.2 UAH/$, fell again to 41.5 UAH/$, which supported export prices.

During the week, export demand prices for wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports increased by $2-3/t:

• for food – up to $228-232/t or 10800-10900 UAH/t,
• for feed – up to $222-224/t or 10,500-10,600 UAH/t.

Despite the insignificant precipitation in Ukraine, the general moisture deficit negatively affects the development of winter crops.

The pace of wheat exports from Ukraine is lower than last year. During March 1-12, 416 thousand tons of wheat were shipped (990 thousand tons for the same period in 2024), and in total, 12.4 million tons have already been exported in the MY 2024/25 (12.76 million tons last year on this date). By the end of the season, Ukraine will be able to export approximately 3 million tons more.

The USDA’s bearish March report sent wheat prices crashing, but yesterday they rose 1.6-2.3% on data on the deterioration of the US crop and increased export sales, although they remain 4.3-9.6% lower than a month ago.

March wheat futures rose yesterday:

• by 1.6% to $201.1/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-9.6% per month),
• by 2.3% to $211.3/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4.3%),
• by 1.6% to $216.8/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-7.6%),
• by 1.2% to €226/t or $245/t – May wheat futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-6%).

According to the USDA, between February 25 and March 3, the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased in Kansas by 2% to 52%, in Texas by 6% to 28%, but increased in Oklahoma by 11% to 46%. Currently, 24% of the winter wheat crops in the United States are in dry conditions (22% a week ago and 15% last year).

Wheat export sales from the US doubled to 783.4 thousand tons in the first week of March, and in total in the MY 2024/25 reached 21.27 million tons, which is 15% ahead of last year’s pace and is 94% of the USDA’s forecast volume (compared to the average of 98%).

Algerian state importer OAIC purchased at least 450,000 tons of food wheat for delivery in May at an international tender on March 12 at a price of $268.5/ton C&F. The fact that importers are maintaining prices at $265-270/ton with delivery may limit further growth in wheat prices in Ukraine.

Tags: Ukraine, export, prices, wheat