Export demand for corn in Ukraine remains high, although world prices are under pressure from cheap US corn supply

Corn prices in Ukraine rose slightly amid declining supply, but further growth will be limited to low corn prices in the United States.

In Ukraine, export demand prices for corn in the ports of the black sea this week increased by 50-100 UAH/t to 9200-9350 UAH/t or 195-198 $/t amid the depreciation of the hryvnia and higher prices for feed wheat to 9600-9700 UAH/t.

In October, Ukraine significantly increased corn exports, which as of October 28 amounted to 1.5 mln tonnes, up 60% compared to October 2023. In general, in 2024/25 MY Ukraine exported 4.27 mln tonnes of corn, which is 18% up from last year.

In the United States, thanks to favorable weather as of October 27, corn harvested 81% of the area (64% on average for 5 years), which increases pressure on prices, as farmers are forced to sell some of the grain due to lack of storage space for this year’s record harvest of soybeans and corn.

December corn futures on the Chicago stock exchange for the week fell by 1.8% to 162 $/t (-4.3% for the month), and cash corn prices fell to 150 $/t, which reduces the profits of farmers.

Accelerated planting in Brazil and Argentina reduces the speculative pressure on quotations, which was observed in September and October.

November corn futures in Paris, despite lower crop forecasts in the EU fell for the week by 2.9% to 205,5 €/t or 223 $/t, which will significantly reduce the demand for expensive Ukrainian corn.

In the October report, MARS experts lowered the forecasts of corn production in the EU in 2024 due to the decrease of yield from 6.85 to 6.66 t/ha, which will be 9% lower than the 5-year average.

According to the European Commission, in 2024/25 MY (as of October 25), the EU imported 6.38 mln tonnes of corn (up 8% compared to the same period last year), including 3.01 mln tonnes from Ukraine, 1.2 mln tonnes from the US, and 1.17 mln tonnes from Brazil.

The South Korean processor MFG purchased 130 thsd tonnes of corn (from South America or South Africa) outside the tender at the price of 242 and 248 $/t C&F for delivery in November-December, which indicates the uncompetitiveness of prices for Ukrainian corn, which are at 215-220 $/t FOB.

 South American Committee on crop evaluation (CEC) has lowered the forecast of corn production in South Africa to 12.72 million tons (22.6% lower than last year), which may support world prices in the second half of the season.

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Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices