Export demand and prices for soybeans in Ukraine increased again

After a strong start at the beginning of the season, export demand for soybeans in Ukraine declined in late October amid increased supply of cheap U.S. soybeans on the global market. But this week, demand and prices in the Black Sea ports rose again.

In October, the export of soybeans from Ukraine increased in comparison with September in 3 times to a record 675 thousand tons, which is 20% higher than the previous record – 561,5 thousand tons exported in October 2019. the Increase in exports due to increased demand for Ukrainian soybeans from the EU and Turkey amid declining prices in July – August.

In general, in 2024/25 MY Ukraine exported 918 thsd tonnes of soybeans (up 44% compared to last year), 47% of which went to the EU (up 54% y/y). Soybean exports to Turkey increased by 10%. In addition, the share of supplies to Pakistan in total soybean exports increased to 12%.

During the week, the purchase price of soybeans with GMOs in ports increased by 500-600 UAH/t to 18300-18500 UAH/t or 380-385 $/t, while processors kept prices at 18000-18200 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, which gave exporters an advantage in the fight for volumes.

Prices for soybean meal are falling as its supply increases, so soon the processors will “overstock” the meal and reduce the volume of soybean processing, as the global market for meal competition is much stronger than in the soybean market.

The export purchase prices for non-GMO soybeans in the Black Sea ports remain at 450-455 USD/t or 21000-21500 UAH/t, while the processors buy it at 21500-21800 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

According to Conab, in Brazil as of November 3, soybeans planted 53% of the planned area (48% last year), and favorable weather will allow to complete sowing in the optimal time and get a record harvest this season.

November futures for soybeans on the Chicago stock exchange for the week rose by 3% to 365 $/t (-4% for the month) on forecasts of a decline in the US crop.

in anticipation of the release of the USDA report, Reuters conducted a survey of analysts, according to which the estimate of soybean yield in the United States reduced in comparison with October by 0.3 to 52.8 bushels/acre.

the election of the President of the United States will determine the further dynamics of prices for soybeans, as the Republicans do not support subsidies for biodiesel production, which may lead to a decrease in demand for soybeans, corn and canola.

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Tags: soybean, supply and demand balance, Ukraine, prices