Expectations of a record canola harvest are putting pressure on the market in Canada

Canadian experts report a much higher canola yield than expected – at least 27% more than last year. According to Oil World, the 2025/26 season is expected to yield at least 21 million tonnes, which is 1.6 million tonnes more than last year.

The canola harvest in September was carried out at a rapid pace and is already nearing completion. In particular, in the province of Saskatchewan, as of October 6, farmers had threshed 89% of the planned area, which is slightly lower than 94% last year. In Manitoba, 92% of the planned area was harvested. An active harvesting campaign contributes to the accumulation of significant crop reserves.

At the same time, canola exports and domestic consumption in the first two months of the 2025/26 season have sharply decreased due to unresolved trade issues with China and low demand from other countries. Canadian canola stocks are expected to reach 3 million tonnes by the end of July 2026, more than double the previous year’s level. The oversupply is weighing on canola prices, despite an overall oilseeds market shortage. A key driver for further price developments will be the development of the Canadian biofuels market in 2026, which could impact demand patterns.

Tags: rapeseed, crop forecast, Canada