The consulting firm Expana has lowered its forecast for European Union soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 marketing year for the fifth consecutive month. The revision reflects reduced expectations for wheat and barley shipments to Middle Eastern countries amid the ongoing war in the region.
In its monthly report, analysts now estimate EU soft wheat exports at 27.1 million tonnes, down from 27.6 million tonnes projected last month. Despite the downward revision, the figure would still exceed the level recorded in the 2024/25 season, when a poor harvest in France limited export volumes.
According to Benoit Fayaud, forecasts for exports to the Middle East were reduced by 250,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 100,000 tonnes of barley due to the immediate impact of the conflict on regional demand and trade flows.
At the global level, Expana also revised its outlook for grain imports into the Middle East for 2025/26. Soft wheat imports were cut by 1.6 million tonnes, corn imports by 1.7 million tonnes, and barley imports by about 500,000 tonnes.
Analysts note that strong trade activity at the start of the marketing year could offset the impact of a temporary slowdown in shipments. As a result, a few months of weaker demand may have only a moderate effect on total trade volumes for the season.
However, Expana warned that if the conflict continues for an extended period or if energy prices remain elevated, grain demand could decline not only in the Middle East but globally. At the same time, the consultancy slightly raised its forecast for the EU’s 2026 soft wheat crop to 128.6 million tonnes, while lowering the outlook for maize production to 57.9 million tonnes.
