EU’s refusal of trade privileges will cost Ukraine $700 million – NBU

The National Bank of Ukraine has estimated specific losses from the termination of trade preferences with the European Union. They will amount to about $700 million in 2025, Deputy Governor of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk said at an event of the Center for Economic Strategy on Friday.

“In April, we considered this factor as a risk, but given that no long-term solution has been found today, certain losses for us, unfortunately, will occur. We estimate them for this year at about $700 million,” Nikolaychuk said.

The NBU’s previous estimate was somewhat higher – $800 million.

He added that a significant part of supplies to Europe will be maintained, while part of exports may be reoriented to third markets.

These losses will be an additional challenge for the Ukrainian economy, which is suffering from the intensification of Russian attacks and other negative factors of the war.

The NBU took them into account in its updated macroeconomic forecast, downgrading its GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 2.1%.

In June 2025, the European Union returned to the terms of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) in trade with Ukraine, abolishing the unilateral duty-free regime (so-called “trade visa-free”) that had been in effect for Ukraine for three years. Until December 31, 2025, quotas of 7/12 of the annual quotas will apply to Ukrainian goods.

On June 30, the EU and Ukraine reached an agreement on new trade terms instead of “trade visa-free”, but the decision still needs to be finalized.

Tags: Ukraine, EU