According to the latest European Union “Agricultural Outlook” report, olive oil production in the EU is expected to rebound over the next decade thanks to higher yields and orchard modernization, despite long-term risks from climate change and declining consumption. Spain and Portugal are projected to strengthen their positions as leading global producers, while key challenges remain, including climate stress, pressure on the table olive sector, and the need for product differentiation and effective marketing to maintain competitiveness.
Overall, olive-growing areas are expected to remain stable, with production growth driven mainly by high-density, irrigated, and modernized orchards. In Spain, olive oil output is forecast to stabilize at around 1.8 million tons per year, while Portugal’s average annual production is expected to reach about 200,000 tons. Modernized systems with efficient water management help mitigate climate stress and ensure long-term production stability.
Meanwhile, Italy’s olive oil production is projected to decline by roughly 3 % per year due to shrinking cultivated areas and lower productivity. Greece also faces challenges, as climate pressures and structural limitations are expected to keep average output below 180,000 tons annually. While technological improvements and orchard renewal may increase yields in many regions, these gains are unlikely to fully offset structural constraints across all producing areas.
Climate change is identified as the most critical long-term risk, with extreme weather events, prolonged droughts, and water scarcity threatening production. Pest pressure, particularly from Xylella fastidiosa, remains a serious concern, with devastating effects in regions like Puglia, Italy, constraining sector recovery.
On the demand side, olive oil consumption is declining in several key producing countries. Although still regarded as a healthy dietary fat, rising prices in recent years have curtailed consumption, especially among cost-sensitive consumers, while non-Mediterranean regions increasingly turn to lower-priced alternatives like sunflower oil.
Per capita consumption in Spain is expected to fall by about 0.6 % per year through 2035, with similar declines forecast in Italy, Greece, and France ranging from 0.5 % to 1.3 % annually. Portugal stands out, as rising domestic output and affordability are expected to support higher consumption levels.
From a trade perspective, Spain and Portugal are set to remain net exporters of olive oil, while most other EU countries are projected to increase imports. Total EU olive oil exports are expected to grow by 6.1 % by 2035. The table olive sector faces pressure from climate stress and shrinking cultivated areas, though irrigation investments are likely to partially stabilize production. Effective marketing and product differentiation will remain crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the global market.
