European Commission again lowered the forecasts of grain and rapeseed harvest in MY 2024/25

Yesterday, the European Commission again lowered its forecasts for crop production in the EU, which supported the stock market in Paris, which this week fell to a minimum, despite recent forecasts of other agencies to reduce the harvest.

According to the EC forecast, the EU grain production in MY 2024/25 will decrease compared to the previous season from 269.9 to 264.5 million tons, including soft wheat – from 125 million tons to 4-year low of 116.1 million tons (120.8 million tons in the previous forecast).

Аorecast of soft wheat exports from the EU in MY 2024/25 is lowered from 32 to 26 mln tonnes (35.1 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24) compared to July estimates.

Recently, other agencies have also lowered their forecasts for EU soft wheat production and exports due to worse-than-expected yields in France and Germany, where it rained for a long time, and in the eastern regions of the EU, which suffered from drought.

European Commission experts also lowered the forecast of barley production in 2024/25 MY from 52.7 to 51.3 mln tonnes (47.5 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24) and corn production from 62.9 to 61.65 mln tonnes (62.7 mln tonnes). The corn harvest will decrease the most in Romania, which used to compete with France for the position of the main corn producer in the EU, and this year was severely affected by the heat.

Forecast of rapeseed crop in the EU in MY 2024/25 reduced from 18.4 to 18 million tons, which is 9.4% less than collected in MY 2023/24 19.7 million tons.

During the week, the quotations for rapeseed, wheat and corn on the stock exchange in Paris fell to multi-month lows, so yesterday on the forecast of the EC reacted with growth:

• September wheat futures – by 1.9% to 202,25 €/t or 224 $/t (+2.8% for the week, -6.8% for the month),
• November corn futures – by 1% to 198,25 €/t or 219,56 $/t (+2.2%, -4.9%),
• November rapeseed futures – by 1.8% to 469.75 €/t or 520.25 $/t (+4.4%, -1.4%).

Tags: wheat, rapeseed, crop forecast, corn, barley, EU