European agencies continue to reduce forecasts for EU sunseed and corn harvests, which will increase the need for imports

In an October report, crop monitoring service MARS lowered its forecasts for EU soybean, sunseed and maize production in 2024 due to low yields in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia and Italy, where crops were hit by heavy rainfall in September after a dry and hot summer.

Compared to September estimates, yield forecasts have been reduced:

• corn – from 6.85 to 6.66 t/ha (will be 9% less than the average 5-year indicator),
• sunseed – from 1.98 to 1.86 t/ha (-13%)
• soybean – from 2.81 to 2.72 t/ha (0%).

At the same time, the sugar beet yield forecast was increased from 74.7 to 75.4 t/ha (+3%).

Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for the sunflower harvest in the EU in 2024 from 8.9 to the lowest level since 2016 of 8.8 million tons, which will be 11% less than in 2023. The reason for the adjustment was rains in France and Romania, which prevented harvesting . At the same time, the forecast for rapeseed production was left at 16.7 million tons, which would be 16.5% lower than last year’s harvest.

According to the European Commission , in 2024/25, the EU increased the import of oil crops compared to the previous season, but reduced the import of rapeseed oil.

Thus, as of October 20, the import of products increased compared to the corresponding period of the previous season:

• soybeans – by 7% to 3.73 million tons (8% more in annual terms than last week),
• rapeseed – by 9% to 1.69 million tons (+12%),
• sunseed – by 62% to 160 thousand tons (+77%),
• soybean meal – by 9% to 5.36 million tons (+7%).

At the same time, the import of oils decreased compared to the same period last year:

• soybean oil – by 65% to 80,000 tons (66% less in annual terms than last week),
• rapeseed oil – by 51% to 90 thousand tons (-50%),
• sunflower oil – by 18% to 590 thousand tons (-31%)
• palm oil – by 17% to 980 thousand tons (-29%).