EU wheat harvest may be the lowest in six years

Last week, estimates of wheat production in the EU declined as yields remained lower than expected in the leading producing countries – France and Germany. This was the result of prolonged rains during the key periods of crop development and harvesting. Decreased estimates of analysts, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and the governments of France and Germany indicate a difficult situation, AHDB writes.

Stratégie Grains estimates the production of milling wheat in the EU countries at 116.50 mln tonnes. This is 5.8 mln tonnes lower than the previous forecast of the company and will be the lowest harvest since 2018 (114.8 mln tonnes according to the European Commission). The company also drew attention to quality issues.

EU soft wheat production in 2018-2023 and forecast for 2024

The French government lowered the estimate of soft wheat harvest in the country by 3.3 mln tonnes to 26.3 mln tonnes, which is 25% less than in 2023 and the lowest harvest since 1987. Argus Media is even more pessimistic about the harvest at 25.2 million tons. Better weather over the past week has helped the wheat harvest in France, which was 88% complete by August 5, but the pace of harvest is still eight days behind the average (FranceAgriMer).

Rains have also delayed the harvest in Germany, with reports of lower yields and protein content, as well as marked regional differences. The German statistical office for the first time estimated the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.7 mln tonnes, down from 21.5 mln tonnes in 2023 and the lowest since 2003.

Tags: EU, France, wheat, Germany, crop forecast