EU wheat export prospects clouded by record Argentina harvest

Traders and analysts say the European Union is struggling to export its significant wheat surplus, as a record harvest in Argentina is increasing competition, particularly in the EU’s largest market, Morocco. European farmers are also reluctant to sell their crops at low prices, Reuters reports.

Argentina’s record harvest is boosting global supplies, putting pressure on Western European suppliers offering higher prices. Consulting firm Expana lowered its forecast for EU soft wheat exports by 4% in 2025/26 to 28.8 million tonnes. Some experts also believe the EU will face difficulties exporting soft wheat and will miss its previously announced export forecast of 30 million tonnes.

Donatas Jankauskas, grain analyst at CM Navigator, said: “Yes, this is a problem, especially when offers from the Black Sea and Argentina are setting the tone for many tenders.”

The results of the Algerian and Saudi Arabian tenders last week have raised concerns in Europe, as traders expect wheat supplies under these tenders to come from Argentina and Black Sea countries.

Argentina’s deliveries to Morocco are particularly impacting EU export prospects, as Algeria has shifted its focus to Black Sea countries.

A German trader warned that time is running out, as Morocco’s harvest begins in May, by which time demand will decline. He said, “I am not optimistic about Western European wheat exports, given the fierce price competition from Argentina and the Black Sea region. We also have a very short window to sell new product to our key customer, Morocco.”

France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, has offset global competition by maintaining stable intra-European supplies. Traders are waiting to see whether France will be able to increase sales to Egypt after the price gap between French and Black Sea countries narrows due to rising shipping costs across the Black Sea. Exports are being hampered by European farmers’ reluctance to sell their produce at prices close to five-year lows. This is particularly true for Germany and Poland.

Another trader stated, “Prices in Western Europe must fall further if we want to secure new large export deals by summer.”

Tags: EU, wheat, Argentina