EU reduced wheat exports by 35% and increased corn imports by 14%, which affects prices in Ukraine

In the MY 2024/25 (as of April 13), the EU exported 16.67 million tons of soft wheat, which is 35% lower than last year’s pace. Therefore, the EU is unlikely to be able to export the projected 26.5 million tons of wheat, which means that ending stocks will increase.

Forecasts of an increase in the wheat harvest and initial stocks in the new season are already putting pressure on quotes in the EU and limiting price growth in Ukraine.

On the Paris Euronext, May wheat futures fell by 5% to €209/t or $237.6/t (-7% month-on-month) during the week, and September futures fell by 2.5% to €211.75/t (-5.7% month-on-month). At the same time, Ukrainian wheat is now being offered at a much higher price of $245-255/t FOB.

The largest exporters of European wheat remain Romania (4.63 million tonnes), Lithuania (2.28 million tonnes), Germany (2.05 million tonnes), Latvia (1.93 million tonnes), France (1.89 million tonnes) and Bulgaria (1.67 million tonnes). The main buyers of wheat from the EU are Nigeria (2.32 million tonnes), Morocco (2.25 million tonnes), Algeria (1.36 million tonnes), the United Kingdom (1.1 million tonnes) and Egypt (953,530 tonnes).

Barley exports from the EU decreased by 19% compared to the previous season to 4.05 million tonnes.

However, the European Commission notes that export data is incomplete. For France, data for the beginning of 2024 is missing, for Bulgaria and Ireland – from the beginning of MY 2023/24, and for Italy – the last 4 months are incomplete.

As of April 13, corn imports to the EU exceeded the corresponding figure for last year by 14% and reached 16.5 million tons, which will allow reaching the USDA forecast of 20 million tons. At the same time, the share of American corn in European imports increased compared to the previous season from 0.8% to 21% or from 113 thousand tons to 3.47 million tons, Ukrainian corn fell from 67% to 57% or from 9.79 to 9.4 million tons, and Brazilian corn fell from 19.3% to 9.8% or from 2.8 to 1.62 million tons.

The US tariff war with the rest of the world, including the EU, will reduce US corn supplies, which will increase demand for corn from Ukraine, as Brazil will begin active exports only in July-August. However, the fall in prices in the EU reduces the export potential of Ukrainian corn, which is offered at $245-250/t FOB.

On Euronext in Paris, June corn futures fell by 2.7% to €204.75/t or $232.7/t (-4.5% per month) during the week, and November futures fell by 1.9% to €206.25/t (-4.1%).

Tags: Ukraine, corn, EU, prices, wheat