EU lowers oilseed harvest forecast and sunseed imports from Ukraine

The consulting agency Strategie Grains has again lowered its forecast for the harvest of oilseeds in the European Union, which will lead to a decrease in their supply in the current season.

According to the latest forecast of Strategie Grains, the harvest of rapeseed, the main oilseed in the EU, will amount to 18.9 mln tonnes, which is lower than the August forecast (19.3 mln tonnes) and the last season’s figure (19.4 mln tonnes).

The decrease in the supply of rapeseed to the EU will be partially offset by imports. The forecasts of rapeseed imports from Australia and Ukraine were revised upward, according to the report of Strategy Grains.

The supply of Australian rapeseed should be supported by large stocks and a new harvest, the prospects of which remain favorable, despite the lack of moisture in some areas.

The upcoming rapeseed harvesting campaign in Canada, as well as the soybean harvest in South America in early 2024, may put pressure on rapeseed prices in the EU, according to Strategy Grains experts. The May COMK4 futures on Euronext has the potential to decrease by 25 euros ($26.99) per ton.

The gross harvest of sunseed in the EU in the current year will be equal to 10.3 mln tonnes, which is 0.2 mln tonnes less than the previous forecast, but 10% more than in 2022.

The forecast for sunseed imports from Ukraine was revised downward due to less competitive prices and based on the assumption that the ban on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to five countries in the eastern EU will be extended until the end of 2023, according to Strategie Grains.

The soybean harvest in the EU will amount to 2.84 mln tonnes (previous forecast – 2.87 mln tonnes), which is still about 14% higher than last year’s level.

The deterioration in the forecasts of sunseed and soybean production is caused by dry conditions in Romania and France.

Tags: Ukraine, EU, soybean, sunseed, rapeseed, crop forecast