EU expects growth in wheat and rapeseed harvests

The European Commission on Thursday forecast that EU wheat production would rebound next season from a 12-year low, but that stocks would continue to fall.

In its first forecasts for the 2025/26 season, which starts in July, the Commission forecasts EU usable soft wheat production at 126.5 million metric tonnes, up 13% from 111.8 million in 2024/25.

Other analysts also expect production to recover, given improved conditions compared with last year, when heavy rains disrupted planting and hampered crop growth.

Europe’s soft wheat imports, meanwhile, are forecast to fall to 3 million tonnes from 7 million expected this season. The Commission said in a note that it currently assumes that trade deals with Ukraine will revert to the pre-conflict quota system after the current free trade agreements expire on June 5.

On the demand side, EU soft wheat exports are estimated at 29.8 million tonnes, above the 25.0 million tonnes expected for the current 2024/25 season.

This contributed to the Commission’s forecast for soft wheat stocks to fall to 7.3 million tonnes by the end of 2025/26, compared with 9.4 million tonnes expected at the end of this season.

The Commission also forecasts barley useful production to rise by 5% to 51.7 million tonnes and maize output to rise by almost 10% to 65.0 million tonnes.

EU maize imports, one of the world’s largest, are forecast to fall to 18.3 million tonnes from the 19.5 million tonnes expected in 2024/25.

In oilseeds, EU rapeseed production is forecast to increase from 16.9 million tonnes to 19.0 million tonnes.

A mild and dry March allowed farmers in many European countries to get started with spring grain sowing, although a continued lack of rain in April could hold back the harvest, analysts say.

The total area sown to spring grains in the European Union is expected to fall this year, as winter crops recover in western Europe after rain-hit last season and farmers in south-eastern Europe turn away from maize due to drought.

“Overall, the dry weather across Europe is quite favourable,” said Argus analyst Maxence Devillers. “Sowing is going well. Spring crops will need rain to restart, but it’s still early days.”

The sparse rains pose a greater risk to winter grains, which are further along in their growth, although the EU crop monitoring service said winter grains were currently in good condition.

The drought was welcomed in France, where some regions have endured the same wet weather that ruined last year’s wheat crop.

French farmers have finished sowing spring barley and could start planting maize next week, Devillers said.

The lack of rain, coupled with winds that have dried out the topsoil, has been a problem in the north, although heavy rains since late last week should help the crop, a French trader said.

“The situation is quite good for the start of spring,” he said.

In Germany, field work has also been active.

“I think spring sowing conditions in Germany have been excellent and good progress has been made,” said one German grain analyst.

The analyst added that Germany’s spring grain area should decline as better autumn conditions and a mild winter reduce the need to replant damaged crops.

In Poland, spring sowing is proceeding at a normal pace, although the lack of rainfall is causing some concern, said Wojtek Sabaranski of the Sparks Polska research company.

Unlike other EU countries, Polish farmers are expected to maintain similar maize acreage, forecasting that the area will exceed 1.2 million hectares for the third year in a row, he said.

In the north, mild weather has also helped sowing in Scandinavia.

“The weather in Sweden and Denmark has been favourable, with around 90% of spring wheat and spring barley sown in Sweden,” said a Swedish analyst, adding that the sowing area in Sweden should be fairly stable and the harvest outlook good.

In contrast, heavy rainfall could delay spring sowing in Spain, although winter crops remain largely in good condition, according to the EU’s crop monitoring report.

Tags: EU, wheat, rapeseed, crop forecast, corn