EU could overtake Russia in wheat exports after Ukraine’s accession
The European Union could become the world’s largest wheat exporter as early as 2027 following Ukraine’s expected accession. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ukraine is forecast to export about 14 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025/26 season, while the EU is expected to ship another 32.5 million tonnes, together exceeding Russia’s projected 44 million tonnes.
Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28, 2022, and accession negotiations officially began in June 2024. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the country aims to join the EU in 2027, a move that could significantly reshape the global grain market.
At the same time, Ukrainian farmers support European integration but warn about the high cost of adapting to EU standards. According to Andrii Dykun, chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, implementing EU requirements in crop production and livestock farming by 2028 will be a major challenge for a sector already weakened by the war.
The World Bank estimates that losses to Ukraine’s agricultural sector from the war exceed $11.2 billion. In addition, a ban on around 100 active crop protection substances currently permitted in Ukraine could cost farmers up to $3 billion annually, the council says. EU farmers, meanwhile, receive generous subsidies in exchange for complying with costly environmental and food safety standards.
Industry representatives also stress the risks of losing markets in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, which generate significant foreign exchange earnings and play a key role in global food security. The council advocates a flexible adaptation approach and financial support for farmers during the transition period.
Experts say the details of accession talks will be decisive, particularly regarding Ukraine’s access to EU subsidies. This will determine whether Ukraine’s farm sector can remain competitive while becoming a key driver of the EU’s rise as the world’s leading wheat exporter.
For almost 30 years of expertise in the agri markets, UkrAgroConsult has accumulated an extensive database, which became the basis of the platform AgriSupp.
It is a multi-functional online platform with market intelligence for grains and oilseeds that enables to get access to daily operational information on the Black Sea & Danube markets, analytical reports, historical data.
You are welcome to get a 7-day free demo access!!!
Got additional questions?
We will be happy to assist!
Write to us
Our manager will contact you soon